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Mos stock price5/1/2023 In March, the US International Trade Commission ruled against Morocco and Russian producers citing that they have materially injured the US Phosphate industry and the US Department of Commerce has issued countervailing duties on these products entering the US. Source: Author, with data from YCHARTS (MOS vs Phosphate and Potash Price Growth 3 Years) Over the last 3 years, MOS has returned very little to shareholders outside of dividends, primarily due to its correlation with the Phosphate Spot prices and Moroccan and Russian subsidies materially devaluing the phosphate industry and prices. MOS produces and markets concentrated phosphate (29% Total Sales MRQ) and potash crop nutrients (24% Total Sales MRQ) primarily in the United States (36.9% Total Sales MRQ) and Brazil (33.4% Total Sales MRQ). These fundamentals began to take shape in 2H 2020 with the US International Trade Commission's Preliminary Ruling on Russian and Moroccan Phosphate subsidies and the Final Ruling in 1H 2021, which has and will continue to alleviate the price suppression in the Phosphate market.Īdditionally, the fundamentals and catalysts I outline below should propel continued growth in MOS earnings for 2021, as well as several years going forward. The Mosaic Company (NYSE: NYSE: MOS) is a turnaround value case with strong bullish macro fundamentals, which I will outline below, affecting the agricultural sector and fertilizer industry. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Cincinnatus Macro Research as a new contributor.
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